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Regional energy security for South Asia

A.N.H.Akhtar Hossain PEng Energy is a pre-requisite for human sustenance and development. Human being used to depend on natural sources of energy mainly biomass till the fossil fuels were discovered. With the discovery of fossil fuels economic development marked rapid growth. Coal contributed largely to the economic development, specially, to the industrial revolution in the eighteenth, nineteenth and early part of twentieth century. Coal is still a major fuel source of electricity generation all over the world. With the discovery and utilisation of liquid fuel economic development started surging forward at a much higher rate from the middle of twentieth century till now. Demand of liquid fuel as energy source is still rising compared to other sources of traditional energy. Utilisation of renewable energy, specially, wind power started long back in Europe. Use of hydropower for generation of electricity started from early part of twentieth century. Harnessing energy from all kinds of renewable sources like sun, wind, geothermal, water etc. are on rise. Two renewable sources e.g. sun and wind are receiving prominence over others. Fossil fuels no doubt contributed immensely towards the modern economic growth and development but current problem of climate change phenomenon has also been caused by indiscriminate use of fossil fuels on the one hand, and destruction of forest for development needs on the other hand. South Asia is a home to about quarter of world population - about 1.56 billion - with total land area of about 5.142 million sq km, which is about 4 per cent of land surface of the earth. A map of South and Central Asia is given in Figure 2.1. Population of South Asia will be about 1.86 billion by 2020. Average population growth of South Asia will be at the rate of 1.92per cent per annum from 2010 to 2020 is given in the Figure 2.2. According to a study conducted by the World Bank in 2004, it was pointed out that the South Asian region has 23per cent of the world population with only 2.1per cent of the world GDP and Gross National Income of South Asian countries excepting Maldives was estimated as US$ 524, which was only 10per cent of world average income of US$ 5,240 in 2003. Economies of South Asian countries are showing remarkable GDP growth during the recovery from global meltdown. India is persistently showing GDP growth of 6 to 9per cent per annum in recent years. Afghanistan is also showing rapid economic growth of about 8per cent because of pouring in of huge amount of external assistance. Bangladesh ranks third with about 6per cent of GDP growth in 2009-10. Bhutan shows a GDP growth rate of about 6per cent. Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are showing economic growth rate of 3.5 to 5per cent although Pakistan is showing decreasing growth rate. It is estimated that the energy demand will grow with the economic growth almost at equal rate. In case of electricity demand increases at a rate of 1.5 times the GDP growth rate. As a result per capita income of all the South Asian countries is showing upward trend. Per capita income of South Asian countries at present varies from about US$ 400 to 5,000 which is supposed to rise substantially in all countries of South Asia by 2020. Although, currently, South Asia is considered to be the place where largest number of poor people of the world lives but by 2020 percentage of poor people will be halved i.e. both the GDP and the per capita income will increase substantially. Traditional sources of commercial energy like oil, gas and coal, are limited and are being exhausted rapidly all over the world. It is revealed that with the current level of exploitation and uses of all the available oil reserves can serve the need of the world till 2030. Every day demand for energy is increasing in the developed as well as in the developing countries. Demand for energy is surging in China and India with their rapid economic growth rates. Currently, these two countries alone are consuming almost quarter of the oil production of the world, although the population of these two countries is more than one-third of the world. Scenario is no different in other countries of South Asia. According to recent study, growth rate of fuel based primary energy demand in India will be about 4.36per cent and demand for electricity will grow by about 8per cent per annum till 2020. In Pakistan, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at a rate of 3.72per cent and demand for electricity will grow by 8per cent per annum till 2020. In Bangladesh, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at the rate of 6.23per cent and demand for electricity will grow by 7.8per cent per year till 2020. In Bhutan, fuel based primary energy consumption will increase at a rate of 6.81per cent and demand for electricity will grow at a rate of 7per cent a year till 2020. In Nepal, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at a rate of 2.73per cent and demand for electricity will grow at a rate of 8.85per cent per year till 2020. In Maldives, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at rate of 5.84per cent and demand for electricity will grow at a rate of 11.3per cent. In Sri Lanka, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at a rate of 3.27per cent and demand for electricity will grow at a rate of 7.7per cent. From these figures it is evident that both the fuel based primary energy demand and the demand for electricity will grow almost at the same level in all the countries of South Asia in the period till 2020. It is evident that the average energy demand of the South Asian countries will grow at an average rate of 3.09 to 9.2per cent, highest being in Bhutan and the lowest in Pakistan. It is expected that with the increase in per capita income or GDP demand for both the primary fuel based energy and electricity will grow at much higher rate than present one. According to the same study, cumulative demand for oil in South Asia for the period 20